The Myth of Peace without Ukraine
Why Trumps Recent Talk with Putin will Do Nothing for Peace
Preface: I am writing this on Feb 13th, 2025. One day after President Trump and his team announced that they have held talks regarding “peace” in Ukraine. I am emotionally invested in the War in Ukraine and believe that Ukraine can only win by reclaiming its territories to at least the pre-2022 borders, if not to the pre-2014 borders. Russia must lose this war.
Wednesday, Feb 12th, 2025. A phone call between President Donald J. Trump and Russian President Vladimir V. Putin could have grave ramifications for global peace and security, as well as America's hegemonic influence throughout the world.
The Trump team has announced concessions in peace talks with Russia: excluding Ukraine from NATO membership, ceding Ukrainian land to Russia, offering no safety guarantees, and rejecting the presence of American peacekeepers.12 With these terms, Russia will undoubtedly gain the upper hand in current and future negotiations. Meanwhile, America is stepping back from the global stage it has dominated for nearly a century.
Currently, Russia is losing this war. The front lines have remained mostly stable for nearly two years. Reports indicate that at least 800,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Ukraine.3 By comparison, in the Soviet-Afghan War, some historians consider a major factor in the collapse of the USSR,4 Soviet forces sustained only 80,000 casualties.5 Russia's economy is failing. Today, the Kremlin suspended stock trading,6 the ruble has plummeted to one of its lowest points since the Russian Federation’s founding,7 and inflation is nearing 10%.8 Nearly 3% of Russia’s population is employed in military-industrial production.9 A welder manufacturing tanks now earns more than the average white-collar worker.10 Russia cannot sustain this war indefinitely. If its losses continue, the Kremlin’s grip on power may weaken, and Putin could face removal and prosecution for his crimes.
Ukraine should not entertain this deal. And I do not believe they will. However, if the U.S. withdraws all military aid and intelligence support, Ukraine’s fate will rest solely in the hands of its soldiers and European leaders. Ukraine’s Armed Forces are already struggling with manpower and ammunition shortages. Europe remains divided, unable to find a path forward, and is struggling to issue a unified statement against these concessions.111213
If Russia is emboldened by these negotiations, it will likely launch another major offensive. Ukrainians cannot hold indefinitely. A Russian breakthrough is inevitable at some point, likely beginning around the fortified Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk14. There, Russia will attempt a repeat of early 2022—bypassing major Ukrainian strongholds and rushing to exploit gaps in the defensive lines. We will see sieges akin to Mariupol15 and collapses of cities like Kherson.16 Ukrainian partisans will continue striking Russian forces in occupied territory, triggering brutal reprisals. Civilians will be targeted.
We must prepare to witness atrocities akin to those in Bucha17 and the discovery of new mass graves like those in Mariupol.18
If Ukraine falls, Russia may win. But peace will not follow—not in Ukraine, nor in the rest of the world. Bolstered by President Trump’s recent remarks about NATO and America’s commitment to the alliance,19 Putin would have every reason to push further. Georgia, then Moldova, then the Baltics. NATO nations would be next. There would be nothing to stop Putin’s ambitions.
China is watching closely and could use this moment to act on its own territorial ambitions. What is stopping China from invading Taiwan? Nothing. Taiwan, one of the most densely populated nations on Earth, would face war. New Zealand, Australia, the Philippines, Thailand, Japan, and South Korea would likely rally to Taiwan’s defense, but they would not succeed without American airpower and naval support.
Many Americans fear playing the role of the world’s police—a sentiment fueled by the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan. But when global stability is threatened, the world turns to America. When the Houthis launched missiles at international trade routes, which nation stepped up? Not China, not Iran, not Russia—the United States did.20 Leading a coalition of European partners, we protected global shipping. No other nation could have done so. When Gaza needed humanitarian aid, it was America that built a floating port to deliver food, water, and medicine.21 When Israel was targeted by Iranian ballistic missiles, it was American forces that intercepted them.22 When Ukraine faced an unprovoked invasion, it was the U.S. that provided the bulk of the weapons that allowed it to fight back.23 These are not acts of imperialism but of necessity—actions that prevented further death, destruction, and economic hardship.
America cannot retreat into isolation. It is the only nation capable of ensuring and fortifying global peace. Without American leadership as a just mediator, millions will perish, and we will cede global dominance to our adversaries. A new dark age of repressive and backward regimes will seize the vacuum left by the end of American hegemony.
We cannot make this mistake.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/13/world/europe/putin-trump-call-russia-ukraine.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/12/world/europe/ukraine-war-hegseth-nato.html
https://uacrisis.org/en/1049#:~:text=the%20pilot%20said.-,More%20than%20800%2C000%20Russian%20troops%20killed%20or%20wounded%20in%20Ukraine,in%20the%20past%20day%20alone.
https://faculty.washington.edu/aseem/afganwar.pdf
Krivosheev, G. F. (1993). Combat Losses and Casualties in the Twentieth Century. London: Greenhill Books.
https://www.timesnownews.com/world/why-russias-moscow-exchange-suspended-trading-on-stock-market-todayexplained-article-118223096
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-ruble-still-worth-less-202142459.html
https://www.statista.com/statistics/276323/monthly-inflation-rate-in-russia/#:~:text=In%20December%202024%2C%20the%20inflation,been%20rising%20since%20October%202024.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/11/15/rabochim-oboronki-nachali-predlagat-zarplati-vishe-chem-ofisnomu-planktonu-i-dazhe-aitishnikam-a113294
https://www.eunews.it/en/2024/11/18/eu-remains-divided-on-ukraine-despite-the-specter-of-trump/
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-ukraine-british-test-pete-hegseth-us-nato-defense-visit-kyiv/
https://www.politico.eu/article/scholz-trump-merz-ukraine-russia-putin-united-states-germany/
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/02/07/russia-closes-in-on-ukraines-pokrovsk-in-one-of-the-wars-key-battles
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Mariupol
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kherson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucha_massacre
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-erasing-mariupol-methodology-f74b28016b8dea4b82811655f14931f2
https://abc3340.com/news/nation-world/president-elect-donald-trump-reopens-possibility-of-us-leaving-nato-if-allies-dont-pay-their-bills-military-spending-gdp-ukraine-war-russia-europe-canada-mark-rutte
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3665898/us-uk-launch-strikes-against-houthi-targets-in-yemen-to-protect-red-sea-shipping/
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3821876/floating-pier-to-return-to-israel-after-successful-gaza-aid-delivery/
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3923123/us-assets-in-mediterranean-again-helped-defend-israel-against-iranian-missiles/#:~:text=Two%20Arleigh%20Burke%2Dclass%20destroyers,as%20part%20of%20defending%20Israel.
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/